City forecasts
Forecasts give us a view of the likely outcome of current demographic, economic and policy trends. They help us answer questions such as how many people may live within the city or how many jobs may be within the city, and where these may be located.
Having a confident understanding of the expected level of growth is essential for allocating sufficient resources and services to support our fast-growing city.
Key results
- The forecasts show by 2041 the number of people living in the City of Melbourne is expected to double and reach over 308,000.
- To accommodate this, the city will see over 42,000 new dwellings.
- By 2041 the number of jobs is forecast to increase by 41 per cent and reach over 659,200.
- Jobs growth will be driven largely by increases in industries such as Business Services (+48,000 jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance (+32,000 jobs) and Education and Training Services (+21,000 jobs).
Our forecasts are developed by independent, specialist agency SGS Economics and Planning and use key inputs from:
- Australian Bureau of Statistics (including Regional and Internal Migration Estimates, Census of Population and Housing, Births, Deaths, Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages)
- City of Melbourne Census of Land Use and Employment (CLUE)
- City of Melbourne Development Activity Monitor
- City of Melbourne strategic plans and structure plans.
This data is used in the forecast modelling process to assess what is driving population and employment change in our city. More information on the forecast results and methodology can be found in the summary report below.
The forecast data includes:
- population by single year from 2021 to 2041
- population by age and gender
- household characteristics such as number, composition and size
- jobs by industry, and floor space by space use type.
Forecasts are provided for the City of Melbourne as a whole, as well as by 13 standard predefined City of Melbourne areas according to CLUE. These are also referred to as CLUE small areas and include:
- Carlton
- East Melbourne
- Docklands
- Kensington (includes parts of Flemington and Flemington Racecourse)
- Melbourne Central Business District (CBD)
- Melbourne, remainder (includes the Royal Botanic Gardens and Melbourne Park)
- North Melbourne
- Parkville
- Port Melbourne
- Southbank (includes South Wharf)
- South Yarra (includes only the west part within City of Melbourne boundaries)
- West Melbourne (residential)
- West Melbourne (industrial).
Forecasts are also provided by the city’s urban renewal areas, which are:
- Arden
- City North
- Fisherman’s Bend Employment Precinct
- Lorimer
- Macaulay
Forecasts present a view of what may happen, based on current data and assumptions. The ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic provides additional uncertainty to forecasts and should be considered when interpreting the results and assumptions.
Additionally, the nature of forecasts is that they are more likely to be accurate in the shorter term (five to 10 years) compared with the longer term (more than ten years). This is due to increasing difficulty in making predictions when factors are unknown or continually changing over time.
Forecasts present a view of what may happen, based on current data and assumptions. The ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic provides additional uncertainty to forecasts and should be considered when interpreting the results and assumptions.
Additionally, the nature of forecasts is that they are more likely to be accurate in the shorter term (five to 10 years) compared with the longer term (more than ten years). This is due to increasing difficulty in making predictions when factors are unknown or continually changing over time.
