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                    Climate change impacts on Melbourne

                    Between 1910 and 2018, Victoria’s mean annual temperature increased by 1°C  (Bureau of Meteorology) and the United Nations declared 2020 “the hottest year on record”.

                    ​​When temperatures rise above 1.5°C it can cause major and irreversible damage to our ecosystems, putting Melbourne’s coveted liveability at risk.

                    We’re already experiencing hotter days, increase bushfire smoke, more intense storms and flooding, and a rise in sea levels. The disruption caused by these impacts is affecting homes, businesses and the natural environment.​


                    Heatwaves

                    • Melbourne is experiencing hotter days. We currently average 11 days of 35 degrees or higher each year. By 2050, we can expect to experience an average 16 days greater than 35 degrees each year (CSIRO).
                    • Increase in heat can be deadly. The 2009 heatwave saw increased demand on health services, including a 46 per cent increase in ambulance callouts and a 12 per cent increase in emergency department presentations (Department of Health).
                    • During the heatwave preceding Black Saturday, there were an estimated 374 heat-related deaths in Victoria, and during the January 2014 wave there were 167 (Department of Health).​

                    Flooding and sea level rise

                    • Melbourne will likely experience more severe rainfall events, increasing the likelihood of flooding and storm surge events.
                    • By 2050, sea levels are expected to rise by 24% compared to 1990s levels (CSIRO).
                    • In 2018, Melbourne experienced a 1 in 1000 year rainfall event with 50 mm of rain falling in 15 minutes. This resulted in flash flooding, train lines suspended and power outages across the city.​

                    Bushfire smoke

                    • Victoria has had longer fire seasons since the mid-1990s, and fire days are projected to increase by 42 per cent per year in Melbourne by 2050 (CSIRO).
                    • In January 2020, Melbourne’s air quality was the worst in the world due to smoke from bushfires (EPA).​

                    Droughts

                    • By 2050, there is projected to be 20 per cent less rainfall during spring in Melbourne. This means more severe conditions in the lead up to the summer bushfire season (CSIRO).
                    • The millennium drought and heat stress have accelerated the decline of the city’s current tree population.

                    Climate change is impacting:

                    Our people

                    • There are health and social impacts from floods, bushfires, extreme heat and storms, especially for Melbourne’s most vulnerable residents.
                    • More than 1200 people are experiencing homelessness in Melbourne, and around 19 per cent of Melbourne’s residents live below the poverty line.
                    • Older people, young children, those with existing medical conditions, and people who cannot afford air conditioning are most at risk during extreme heat.
                    .

                    Our plants and animals

                    • Climate change is disrupting natural cycles and habitat in our parks and gardens.
                    • Temperature increases mean we could lose 35 per cent of the city’s trees in the next 20 years, with elms and some species of indigenous eucalypts being particularly vulnerable.
                    • Melbourne is home to many threatened species including the powerful owl, grey-headed flying fox and the swift parrot. Climate change is likely to increase the threat to their survival.​

                    Our economy

                    • The estimated cost of smoke haze in Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra from the 2019–2020 bushfires was $500 million. 
                    • Climate change is expected to cost our local economy $12.6 billion by 2050 and impact agriculture, tourism, insurance and finance (CSIRO).
                    • Businesses in the municipality of Melbourne lost an estimated $37 million in revenue over the four-day heatwave in 2014. 
                    • The total cost of the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires was estimated at $4.4 billion (The Bushfires Royal Commission).

                    Heatwaves and days of extreme heat

                    Currently Melbourne experiences nine very hot days (where temperatures exceed 35 degrees) on average each year. Climate models suggest this number will increase by up to 26 days on average by 2070. Heatwaves (five or more consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 35 degrees) are also predicted to increase in frequency.

                    Heatwaves and very hot days are known to have serious impacts on human and animal health, increases in antisocial behaviour, the performance of infrastructure and the delivery of essential services.

                    Human health

                    Hundreds of people die each year from conditions exacerbated by extreme heat. The very young, elderly or sick are most vulnerable to extreme heat, though all individuals can be affected, regardless of age or health.

                    The risk of extreme heat days is compounded in urban areas due to an effect known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Built-up areas experience higher temperatures than surrounding areas due to expanses of exposed concrete, asphalt, and steel which retain heat and release it over longer time periods than vegetation.

                    This can cause average urban daytime air temperatures to be up to 5.6°C higher than the surrounding areas in summer. This means taking health precautions is particularly important during days of extreme heat in the city.

                    Find out what you can do to look after your health during a heatwave.

                    Economic

                    Extreme heat has a significant impact on the operation of businesses. Impacts can include:

                    • lost revenue
                    • decreased staff reliability and comfort
                    • increased operating costs
                    • decreased efficiency of operations.

                    It is estimated that during the four day January 2014 heatwave (14-17 January) businesses across the City of Melbourne experienced a $37 million decline in revenue.

                    This equates to almost $10 million in lost revenue per day. Certain sectors such as retail and food and beverage appear to have been harder hit than others.

                    Read more about the impact of heatwaves on Melbourne businesses (PDF 987 KB).

                    Antisocial behaviour

                    Higher temperatures have been correlated to increased levels of violence and antisocial behaviour. Research undertaken for the City of Melbourne 2012 indicated that the number of assaults in the municipality increases by 6.62 incidents per 100,000 persons for every one degree temperature increase above 32 degrees.

                    Read more about the research in Economic Assessment of the Urban Heat Island Effect (PDF 2.05 MB).

                    Essential services and infrastructure

                    Very hot days and heatwaves place stress on the provision of essential services such as electricity and many types of infrastructure including roads, train and tram tracks, and overhead power lines.

                    Increased use of air-conditioners pushes up demand for power during heatwaves and can potentially outstrip supply leading to power blackouts. This risk has significant implications during a heatwave, particularly for those managing their heat stress with air-conditioning. Mass stranding of public transport passengers may also occur if outages are sufficient to disrupt train and tram services.

                    Drought and reduced rainfall

                    The increasing frequency of drought and reduced rainfall poses challenges to Melbourne’s water supply, as well as the health of parks, trees and green spaces throughout the city.

                    Between 1998 and 2007 rainfall was 14 per cent below average in Victoria. Annual average rainfall is predicted to decrease by 4 per cent by 2030 and 11 per cent by 2070, with the largest declines occurring in spring. The rainfall Victoria does receive will increasingly come from intense storms. Higher evaporation rates are expected to result in less run-off into rivers with a potential decline of up to 45 per cent in 29 Victorian catchments by 2030, placing strain on water supply and the biodiversity of our waterways.

                    Fire risk will also become greater as droughts become more severe. The warmer, drier and longer summers expected in Victoria are very likely to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires – with flow-on effects for air quality.

                    The City of Melbourne is working to better understand and protect the city from the impacts of reduced rainfall. We are investing in infrastructure and working towards consumption targets that will encourage smarter use of drinking water, build resilience to reduced rainfall and prepare the city for future droughts.

                    Flooding and extreme storm events

                    Flood events, including those currently known as one in 100 year floods, are predicted to become more common. The area of land inundated during flood events is also expected to increase due to higher intensity rainfall and rising sea levels.

                    The increasing frequency of flood and extreme weather events in Melbourne will pose hazards to people, infrastructure and the delivery of essential services. Flood inundation and extreme storm events can cause substantial damage to property and infrastructure as well as place the health and safety of people at risk.

                    Being prepared for flood emergencies is your responsibility. For tips and suggestions on how to develop a flood emergency plan and to prepare your property, see Floods and storms.

                    Flash flooding is known to cause the most deaths or injuries of all natural disaster weather events and is the main threat in an intense rainfall event. New rainfall patterns and models predict rainfall intensity will increase 0.9 per cent by 2030 and 5.9 per cent by 2070, and extreme event scenarios are likely to increase the extent of flooding in those areas, but are unlikely to create new flooding hotspots altogether.

                    An informed and prepared community can reduce the number of injuries, deaths and stress due to flash floods, so it's important to be prepared and understand the risks.

                    River flooding

                    In Melbourne, there is an existing flood risk to low lying precincts near the Yarra and Maribyrnong rivers and Moonee Ponds Creek, including parts of Docklands, Southbank and Fishermans Bend, when high tides coincide with extreme rainfall events.

                    The combination of climate change impacts, including more frequent, large rainfall events and sea level rise means that riverine flooding in these areas will increase in frequency and severity.

                    Extreme storm events

                    Extreme storms are characterised by intense rainfall, hail, and high wind speeds. In Melbourne, climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall but wind speeds will remain similar to what they are today.

                    You can find out more about floods at Flood Victoria.

                    Preparing our city for floods and more extreme storms is a long-term challenge that requires the support and involvement of the whole community.

                    What we are doing

                    Upgrades to the city’s drainage system, installation of water capture and storage projects, incorporation of water sensitive urban design concepts into our planning scheme, and research to better understand the impacts and potential solutions are some of the approaches we are taking to mitigate future flood risks.

                    Flood information guides

                    A flood information guide that details which areas are at risk of flooding and offers advice on how to prepare has been developed in partnership with the State Emergency Service (SES).

                    Download the guide from the SE​S website.

                    Port Phillip Bay Coastal Adaptation Pathways Project

                    The Port Phillip Bay Coastal Adaptation Pathways Project explored the economic benefits of infrastructure to combat flooding. Detailed case studies were prepared for Southbank and Arden-Macaulay, City of Melbourne areas that already experience regular floods.

                    The study found that by 2040 there would be an increase in the frequency and impact of flood events in these areas, but it was still cost effective to occupy this land, even if no protective measures are taken.

                    The project produced some very important results, however, there are a number of limitations to the approach which should be considered when interpreting the results.

                    We will use the outcomes of this research to better inform future planning and management of flood risk in Southbank and Arden Macaulay, building on the approach outlined in our Climate Change Adaptation Strategy.

                    We will continue to work with all levels of government to better manage and minimise the risks, as well as continue to work with the community in flood prone areas to help them understand current flood risks and what they as individuals can do to help lessen their vulnerability when flooding occurs.

                    What you can do

                    There are steps you can take to reduce flood risks in your area. Clean drains, rain gardens and water tanks can all play a role in reducing the flood risk to our community.

                    Drains

                    The drainage system plays a crucial role in reducing flood risks but needs to be clear of leaf litter and debris to work most efficiently.

                    If you notice blocked or flooding stormwater drains or have problems with a connection from a private property into a City of Melbourne drain, please contact us.

                    Please report all problems with blocked sewers or burst water mains or leaking fire hydrants to the local water company: City West Water on 13 16 91 (north of the Yarra River) and South East Water (south of the Yarra River) on 13 92 83.

                    Rain gardens and water tanks

                    Rain gardens, planted areas designed to capture water run-off, retain and slow the rate of water entering drains during intense rainfall events. They help reduce pressure on drains and lessen local inundation risks.

                    You can read more about how to install a rain garden and the other benefits Melbourne Water offers.

                    Tanks capture water during intense rainfall events and can reduce the amount of pressure placed on the drainage system and the subsequent flood risk. Installing a tank at your home can help mitigate the flood risk during intense rainfall events.

                    Find out if your home or work is in a flood prone area

                    People who live or work in flood prone areas need to be aware of the risks and what to do during a flood or extreme weather event.

                    You can find out if your home or workplace is in a flood prone area in two ways:

                    • Visit the Planning Scheme for the City of Melbourne and view a map of flood overlays at DPCD. You can use these maps to check if you are likely to be cut-off by flood water even if your home or workplace is not directly threatened.
                    • Alternatively, planning scheme information services at the Victorian government's Department of Transport and Planning can generate a specific report of your property. Search for your address at Vicplan.

                    Future flood risks: Southbank and Arden-Macaulay

                    Flood maps detailing future flood risks are available for Southbank and Arden-Macaulay.

                    Rising sea levels

                    Climate change is projected to increase average sea-levels along Victoria’s coast by 5 to 15cm by 2030 and 26 to 59cm by 2070. These changes will increase the likelihood and severity of floods and other inundation events like storm surges in Melbourne.
                    The City of Melbourne is working to understand the exact risks that sea level rise poses to the city and what can be done to help mitigate the impacts.

                    Critical risks identified due to sea level rise for the City of Melbourne include property damage from inundation in low lying areas, infrastructure damage where rapid adaptation is required, and increased flood risk. Areas most at risk include parts of the Docklands, Southbank and Fishermans Bend.

                    While the risks posed by sea level rise are relatively negligible during the immediate future, they become far more concerning by 2070 with current climate change projections. Higher sea levels in 2070, coupled with more intense storms and increased storm surge heights, will greatly expand the coastal and riverine areas likely to be inundated by storm events.

                    The Federal Government has developed a series of initial maps that show potential sea level rise impacts in Melbourne. Those who own existing properties that may be impacted by sea level rise in the future should take this into account when planning future renovations or developments.

                    Integrated, long-term strategies to address sea level rise are far more cost effective than potentially drastic and urgent measures undertaken when shores are inundated. The best and most cost effective adaptation measures are related to urban planning and infrastructure decisions in the short term. This makes the long term risks of sea level rise an active management issue for today.

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