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                    Population forecasts

                    Melbourne city skyline
                    According to the latest Australian official population estimates, the City of Melbourne is the fastest growing municipality in Australia in percentage terms. At 30 June 2019 an estimated 178,955 people were living in our city. By 2041 our population is expected to reach over 384,000.
                    Important notice
                    City of Melbourne’s forecasts were prepared prior to the COVID-19 event. They do not consider potential impacts to assumptions (births, deaths, migration) stemming from COVID-19. They do, however, provide a baseline by which to understand where the population may have been without this external shock.

                    Population forecasts provide a reliable prediction of the future population. They help us answer questions such as how many people will live within the city, where they will be located, how old they will be and what type of household they will live in. Having a confident understanding of the expected level of population growth is essential to allocating sufficient resources and services to support our fast growing city.

                    The City of Melbourne’s population and household forecasts website provides single year forecasts for the next 25 years for our municipality, as well as thirteen small areas according to our Census of Land Use and Employment (also known as CLUE small areas). The website can be used to view forecasts for our:

                    • population (residents), dwellings and households, including average household size
                    • age structure and sex structure (in five year groupings and service age groups)
                    • household types, including households with and without children.

                    Forecasts are produced by an independent, specialist agency (.id). You can view forecasts and download them in tabular format on our Open Data Platform.

                    Using population forecasts

                    The nature of forecasts is that they are more likely to be accurate in the shorter term (five to ten years) compared with the longer term (more than ten years). This is due to increasing difficulty in making predictions when factors are unknown or continually changing over time. This should be kept in mind when using forecasts.

                    The FAQs section of the forecast website provides more details around the accuracy of the forecasts provided.

                    About the population forecasts

                    The forecasts are periodically updated when the ABS releases new and/or revised population estimates. They are based on data provided by:

                    • The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), including the latest Census, Estimated Resident Population (ERP), birth rates, death rates and net migration
                    • The City of Melbourne including development activity, built form capacity and policy and planning documents.

                    This data is used in the forecast modelling process to assess what is driving population change in our city. More information on the drivers of population change, assumptions and the forecast methodology used to develop our city’s forecasts can be found on the forecast website.

                    Forecasts are provided by 13 standard predefined areas according to our Census of Land Use and Employment (CLUE). These are also referred to as CLUE small areas and include:

                    • Carlton
                    • East Melbourne
                    • Docklands
                    • Kensington (includes parts of Flemington and Flemington Racecourse)
                    • Melbourne Central Business District (CBD)
                    • Melbourne, remainder (includes the Royal Botanic Gardens and Melbourne Park)
                    • North Melbourne
                    • Parkville
                    • Port Melbourne
                    • Southbank (includes South Wharf)
                    • South Yarra (includes only the west part within City of Melbourne boundaries)
                    • West Melbourne (residential)
                    • West Melbourne (industrial)

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